000
AXNT20 KNHC 141728
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 08N13W
TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 04N15W TO 02N19W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 02N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 0N32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03S TO 05N W OF
15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   

HIGH PRES RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY THU WITH MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN
FLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE W AND N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WHERE FRESH SE FLOW WILL DEVELOP WED MORNING AS LOW PRES BUILDS
OVER THE W BASIN. THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE TROUGH ENHANCES
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 26N TO 28N WITHIN 160 NM OFF THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...THE GOES IFR PRODUCT SHOWS HIGH
FOG PROBABILITIES WITHIN 120 NM OF LOUISIANA...TEXAS AND E
MEXICO COASTS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF FOG
OVER NW GULF WATERS. VESSELS AND SMALL BOATS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION AS VISIBILITY MAY BE LESS
THAN 3 MILES. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

HIGH PRES RIDGING DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN WHILE A 1008 MB LOW
PRES PREVAILS OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES SUPPORTS FRESH NE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE NE AND N CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS THROUGH LATE WED.  

HISPANIOLA...            

THE COMBINATION OF A MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AND
SHALLOW MOISTURE IN TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
WATERS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WED. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                             

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR
30N22W AND CONTINUES SW TO 24N41W TO 22N51W. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N20W TO 22N27W. BOTH THE
FRONT AND THE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WHILE A
NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL BASIN. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST E OF THE NEW COLD FRONT THROUGH TUE
MORNING WHEN SW WINDS WILL BECOME FRESH TO STRONG.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
RIDGE BEING ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N66W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS