000 AXNT20 KNHC 141128 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 08N13W TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 02N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 02N19W AND CONTINUES TO 00N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 02N- 07N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 02W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-02S BETWEEN 17W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 80W-85W. 10 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 09N74W. 20-25 KT WINDS REMAIN ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER INLAND S GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W TO INCLUDE OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ADVECTING OVER HISPANIOLA FROM THE E. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N66W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT HAS DIPPED DOWN INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM THE N. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N24W TO 26N30W TO 25N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 24N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N21W TO 21N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 75W-80W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-60W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO MOVE E AND DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO DIP INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N39W TO 27N46W TO 28N60W WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA