000 AXNT20 KNHC 130543 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN MAR 13 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 08N13W TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 04N16W TO 01N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 01N25W AND CONTINUES TO 00N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 00N-05N BETWEEN 12W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 00N-03N BETWEEN 25W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 31N87W TO 27N87W MOVING E. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1014 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 25N93W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER W OF 90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS ZONAL FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER GULF AREA EXCEPT OVER N FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE SE GULF...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 09N74W. 25-30 KT WINDS REMAIN ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. THE NE CARIBBEAN HAS 10-20 KT SE WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. FURTHER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W TO INCLUDE OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ADVECTING OVER HISPANIOLA FROM THE E. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STRONG 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N70W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT HAS DIPPED DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM THE N. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N40W TO 27N50W TO 28N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N27W TO 21N36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THIS FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-60W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO EXTEND FROM 31N27W TO 25N40W TO 26N50W WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA