000 AXNT20 KNHC 122334 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT MAR 12 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 08N13W TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 02N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N22W TO THE EQUATOR AT 29W TO 02N35W TO THE EQUATOR AT 39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30-45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-26W...AND ALSO FROM 00N-03N BETWEEN 12W-17W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1013 MB LOW WAS ANALYZED INLAND OVER EASTERN TEXAS NEAR 31.5N96.5W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE NW GULF THROUGH 30N94W TO 24N94W. ANOTHER TROUGH IS LOCATED TO THE E IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS TROUGH IS THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA THROUGH 26N88W TO THE N CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 120-180 NM AHEAD OF THE EASTERN TROUGH. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WHILE THE EASTERN TROUGH DRIFTS TO THE E WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH SUN. HIGH PRES WILL THEN DOMINATE THE BASIN THEREAFTER. CARIBBEAN SEA... HIGH PRES RIDGING REMAINS N-NE OF THE AREA OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO BE CONFINED TO JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN COLOMBIAN COAST. MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 15N63W TO 11N63W. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS FOUND OVER WINDWARD LOCATIONS OF HISPANIOLA IN TRADE WIND FLOW WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE ISLAND OTHERWISE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 29N72W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH 27N65W TO 24N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WHICH WAS ANALYZED FROM 32N45W TO 29.5N56W TO 31N68W... WHERE IT CONTINUES TO THE NW AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90- 150 NM AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS TO THE E EXTENDING FORM 32N28W TO 20N38W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 45-75 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE EASTERN FRONT WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE WESTERN FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES THROUGH EARLY MON. OTHERWISE THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SE UNITED STATES COAST LATE MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LEWITSKY