000
AXNT20 KNHC 121757
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT MAR 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 08N13W
TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 01N23W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS
AND CONTINUES TO 01S28W TO 00N25W TO 03N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 13W AND 36W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   

AN OCCLUDED 1012 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER SE TEXAS NEAR 30N97W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
29N95W TO 24N96W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED
AS A COLD FRONT...EXTENDS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI COAST NEAR 30N89W
TO 26N89W TO 20N92W. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 210 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE CENTRAL GULF
TROUGH AXIS N OF 25N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM E OF THIS TROUGH AXIS S OF 25N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AXIS. MODERATE TO FRESH SE
WINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN GULF E OF THE CENTRAL GULF TROUGH
AXIS. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BETWEEN THE TWO
TROUGH AXIS...WITH VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF. MAINLY
MODERATE W WINDS ARE BETWEEN THE WESTERNMOST TROUGH AND TEXAS
COAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NE
OVER THE CENTRAL US. SURFACE TROUGHING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC THAT SUPPORTED THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS SPEEDS OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE...THE GALE WARNING EARLIER THIS
MORNING ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA HAS ENDED. MAINLY MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN TODAY...EXCEPT A SMALL
AREA OF STRONG WINDS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE N COAST OF
COLOMBIA...AND LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N63W TO 11N63W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
WITH THIS TROUGH...OR AT ANY OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN DUE TO DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS TRADE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BY ANOTHER FEW KT AS THE HIGH
CENTER OVER THE W ATLC DRIFTS SE AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. 
 
HISPANIOLA...                              

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ADVECTING OVER WINDWARD LOCATIONS OF
HISPANIOLA IN TRADE WIND FLOW. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE ISLAND
OTHERWISE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                             

A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 29N72W
WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 23N40W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NE ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF
DISCUSSION NEAR 31N30W TO 20N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE FRONT. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ALONG 31N OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC WILL MOVE SE AND WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 30N33W TO
25N50W TO 28N61W BY 1200 UTC SUNDAY. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS
WILL OCCUR N OF THE FRONT. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO