000 AXNT20 KNHC 120530 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A GALE IS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE NE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA. METEO-FRANCE IS FORECASTING GALE-FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE AREA OF AGADIR TONIGHT...AND DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE SATURDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE... BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 09N13W TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 01N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 01N20W AND CONTINUES TO 00N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03S40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 00N-06N BETWEEN 11W- 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 02N-04S BETWEEN 20W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1011 MB LOW IS INLAND NEAR SAN ANTONIO TEXAS AT 29N98W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS NE TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR WACO TEXAS AT 32N96W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO ALONG 29N92W 25N91W 18N95W. A SQUALL LINE IS E OF THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 30N89W TO 24N91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT AND SQUALL LINE N OF 18N BETWEEN 87W-95W TO INCLUDE E LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE FLORIDA AND THE FAR E GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 29N98W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO DRIFT E AND DISSIPATE OVER THE E GULF WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE... A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 19N59W TO 13N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING 20-30 KT WINDS OVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN OUTSIDE OF THE GALE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 80W TO INCLUDE W CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N58W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT THE SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ADVECTING OVER HISPANIOLA FROM THE ENE. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STRONG 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N68W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N32W TO 21N39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 28W-32W. A GALE IS E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N30W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO EXTEND FROM 31N27W TO 22N34W WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA