000 AXNT20 KNHC 112332 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W. DUE TO THIS...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. EXPECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE NE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA. METEO-FRANCE IS FORECASTING GALE-FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR THE AREA OF AGADIR TODAY...AND DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE... BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 06N10W TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 01N20W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01S30W TO 03S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER SW TEXAS NEAR 29N99W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THIS LOW TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 31N95W. A COLD FRONT THEN EXTENDS S FROM THE TRIPLE POINT INTO THE W GULF FROM 30N94W TO 25N93W TO 20N97W. TO THE E...A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS 30N88W TO 24N91W. WITH THIS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 24N BETWEEN 87W-92W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS BY LATE SATURDAY. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME. CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY. THE ONLY ACTIVITY OBSERVED IS INDUCED BY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE GALE WINDS TO PULSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE ADVECTING OVER THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STRONG 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N68W WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 29N AND W OF 40W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THIS AREA. TO THE E...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N33W TO 23N37W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 43N14W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THIS AREA IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA OVER THE METEO-FRANCE AGADIR SECTION. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA