000 AXNT20 KNHC 110538 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A GALE IS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE NE WINDS. METEO-FRANCE IS FORECASTING GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE AREAS OF AGADIR AND TARFAYA. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS OF... PERSISTENCE OF NORTH NEAR GALE OR GALE OVER AGADIR AND TARFAYA. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE... BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 07N12W TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 03N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 03N21W AND CONTINUES TO 00N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03S43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 04N-03S BETWEEN 22W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1011 MB LOW IS NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS AT 30N94W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO ALONG 27N92W 20N93W 17N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE FRONT FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 95W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N BETWEEN 91W-94W TO INCLUDE E LOUISIANA. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N89W TO 18N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN 87W-92W. ELSEWHERE FLORIDA AND THE FAR E GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 25N100W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF. EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE TO N OF HOUSTON IN 24 HOURS NEAR 32N97W WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE... A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM TRINIDAD TO THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE SHEAR LINE. A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING 20- 30 KT WINDS OVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN OUTSIDE OF THE GALE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 83W TO INCLUDE BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STRONG 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N69W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N37W TO 22N40W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 11N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 26W- 36W. A GALE IS E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N37W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO EXTEND FROM 31N32W TO 20N40W WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA