000 AXNT20 KNHC 102334 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 11N- 13N BETWEEN 74W-77W WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE NE WINDS OVER THE FAR E ATLANTIC FOR THE AREAS OF AGADIR AND TARFAYA. METEO-FRANCE HAS A GALE WARNING OVER THESE AREAS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AGADIR. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 07N11W TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 03N20W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01N30W TO 01S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE ITCZ MAINLY W OF 10W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N95W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 24N93W TO 18N95W. TO THE E OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N92W TO 26N93W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PREVAIL ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW/FRONT/TROUGH AFFECTING THE W GULF W OF 90W. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS W ACROSS THE E GULF E OF 90W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE BASIN W OF THE FRONT WHILE A FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. LATEST GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE LOW MOVING N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAKING THE FRONT STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN. THIS WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION BETWEEN 85W-95W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. THE ONLY AREA WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE THE SE...WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT TRANSITIONED INTO A SHEAR LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM 11N68W TO 12N62W. FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS N OF THE SHEAR LINE WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE S OF THE LINE. TO THE W...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN W OF 70W...AND GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. EXPECT FOR THE SHEAR LINE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLAND TONIGHT. EXPECT SIMILAR ACTIVITY TO BEGIN ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC WITH A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N71W. TO THE E...A WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N39W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 23N39W TO 20N47W WHERE THE FRONT TRANSITIONS INTO A SHEAR LINE EXTENDING TO 12N62W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 41N18W. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS N OF 30N AND E OF 20W. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE W AND FAR E ATLANTIC. THE LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN WHILE MOVING EASTWARD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA