000 AXNT20 KNHC 101757 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC WAS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF UNTIL 1800 UTC TODAY. THE LOW IS WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES N TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST WHICH IS RESULTING IN WINDS DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF. HOWEVER...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FT POSSIBLE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS OF 11 TO 16 FT. THE GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE NE WINDS. METEO-FRANCE IS FORECASTING GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE AREAS OF AGADIR AND TARFAYA. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS OF THE PERSISTENCE OF THE GALE OVER AGADIR. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO- FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE... BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 07N12W TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 02N18W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01N30W TO 01S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 14W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N96W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FORM THE LOW TO 23N94W TO 16N97W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT TO 91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WAS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND IS MOVING N TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST WHICH IS HELPING TO DIMINISH WINDS TO BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS COVER THE EASTERN GULF E OF 90W. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. MODERATE CYCLONIC WINDS ARE N OF 25N W OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NW OVER THE TEXAS COAST WHILE THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION. STRONG S TO SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE E OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT...NOW A SHEAR LINE...EXTENDS FROM THE S LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 21N62W TO 12N73W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SHEAR LINE. FRESH NE WINDS ARE N OF THE SHEAR LINE. LIGHT WINDS ARE S OF THE SHEAR LINE. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS STRONG E TO NE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 67W AND 78W. FRESH E TO SE WINDS COVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE SHEAR LINE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NE PORTION OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STRONG 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 30N71W SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE S OF 27N. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LOW NEAR 22N61W SUPPORTS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...NOW A SHEAR LINE...EXTENDS FROM 18N53W TO 13N62W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SHEAR LINE. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N39W TO 29N40W WHERE IT REACHES A 1018 MB SURFACE LOW. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW OF THIS LOW TO 19N46W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N35W TO 25N39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 30W AND 38W. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NE ATLC DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC E OF 30W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AROUND THIS HIGH OVER THE AGADIR REGION OF METEO-FRANCE. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO