000 AXNT20 KNHC 101128 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND A LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS. COLD FRONT IS FROM 1003 MB LOW PRES NEAR 27N96W TO 19N96W. A GALE IS FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W WITH SEAS 9 TO 13 FT IN SE SWELL. ANOTHER GALE IS WITHIN 150 NM E OF FRONT S OF 21N WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS. A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. ANOTHER GALE IS S OF HISPANIOLA NAMELY N OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GALE S OF HISPANIOLA WILL END IN SIX HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE NE WINDS. METEO-FRANCE IS FORECASTING GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE AREAS OF AGADIR AND TARFAYA. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS OF...PERSISTENCE OF NORTH NEAR GALE OR GALE OVER AGADIR AND TARFAYA. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE... BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 09N13W TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 02N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 02N22W AND CONTINUES TO 02N39W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1003 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTING GALES OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO. SEE ABOVE. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER NE MEXICO...E TEXAS...THE W GULF W OF 93W...AND LOUISIANA W OF 91W. ENTRAINING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IS PRODUCING SEVERE FLOODING INLAND OVER W LOUISIANA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 15-30 KT SE SURFACE FLOW WITH WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE FAR NE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 24N104W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF. EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE TO NW OF HOUSTON IN 24 HOURS WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVIEST ALONG THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ANOTHER GALE IS S OF HISPANIOLA. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE... THE DISSIPATING TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM 13N60W TO 12N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING 20-30 KT WINDS OVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN OUTSIDE OF THE GALE AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 13N W OF 83W TO INCLUDE N NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE FRONT TO FULLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. HISPANIOLA... STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STRONG 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N72W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THIS HIGH IS PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N39W TO 20N46W TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N BETWEEN 33W-38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A GALE IS E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-70W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO EXTEND FROM 31N36W TO 20N40W WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA