000 AXNT20 KNHC 100005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED MAR 09 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING FORECAST FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...AGADIR AND TARFAYA. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS OF...PERSISTENCE OF NORTH NEAR GALE OR GALE IN...AGADIR AND TARFAYA. THREAT OF NORTHEAST NEAR GALE IN CANARIAS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 08N17W 04N18W 02N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 02N20W TO 01N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 40W...TO 42W ALONG THE EQUATOR. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N13W 07N30W 04N50W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 29N91W OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA...TO 19N95W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1004 MB MIDDLE TEXAS GULF LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO A 1002 MB MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N98W...TO 20N98W. A SQUALL LINE IS ABOUT 150 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 23N NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 29N91W OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA...TO 19N95W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N73W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA...TO 20N84W...AND INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF BELIZE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... IFR CONDITIONS...KBBF...KBQX...KXIH...KGLS...KVBS...KHHV... KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KGBK...KGHB...KGRY...KEIR...AND KSPR. MVFR CONDITIONS...KEHC...KVQT...KATP...KMDJ...KIPN...KIKT... KVOA...KMIS...AND KDLP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...RAIN IN LOWER VALLEY/THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. THUNDER AND RAIN IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. IFR IN VICTORIA. MVFR IN PORT LAVACA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE IN THE VICINITY OF PALACIOS. IT IS RAINING FROM BAY CITY...INTO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES...AND TO HUNTSVILLE...JASPER...AND BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA... MVFR IN THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA. IFR IN PORT FOURCHON. MVFR CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA. LIGHT RAIN IN NEW IBERIA. LIGHT RAIN AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MVFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...IFR AT THE STENNIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND IN GULFPORT. MVFR IN BILOXI AND IN PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...MVFR IN THE MOBILE METROPOLITAN AREA. VFR/NO CEILING IN GULF SHORES. FLORIDA...MVFR/VFR IN THE WESTERNMOST PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FROM MILTON TO PENSACOLA. MVFR IN DESTIN. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE ELSE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...AND FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 80W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 09/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.32 IN ST.THOMAS IN THE U.S.A. VIRGIN ISLANDS...0.25 IN GUADELOUPE... AND 0.03 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. SURFACE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ACROSS HISPANIOLA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. LA ROMANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...1800 FEET...MVFR. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE...FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD A BIT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ANTICYCLONE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N45W TO 22N55W...TO GUADELOUPE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...TO 12N66W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 26N42W TO 18N51W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES FROM 18N51W TO 14N60W TO 13N69W AND 13N72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N37W...TO 26N38W 22N44W 18N50W 16N55W 15N60W. THE 24- HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.18 IN BERMUDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N19W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 30W EASTWARD. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 27N32W 22N38W TO 19N42W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 19N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N40W 18N51W COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N73W 27N66W TO 28N45W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE COLD FRONT/SHEAR LINE NORTHWESTWARD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT