000 AXNT20 KNHC 091118 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED MAR 09 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... E ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA OF AGADIR IN METAREA II. NORTHERLY GALE TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES... GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/ BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2 FOR MORE DETAILS. CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES OF A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A MAX OF 14 FT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NW GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE WINDS WITH MAX SEAS TO 13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND MEXICO TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA AFRICA NEAR 05N09W TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 04N20W TO 02N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 02N25W AND CONTINUES ALONG 01S38W TO 02S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-06N BETWEEN 14W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE E BASIN ANCHORED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SW N ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 29N72W. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER WESTERN GULF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS SW ACROSS MEXICO TO EPAC WATERS WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THU EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG TO NEAR GALE- FORCE RETURN FLOW DOMINATES ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEAS DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL BUILD TO A MAX OF 14 FT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OFF THE NE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 23N TO 25N W OF 96W WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE BASIN W OF 91W. DENSE FOG IS ALSO BEING REPORTED OVER THE NW BASIN N OF 26N COINCIDING WITH MODERATE FOG PROBABILITIES IN THE GOES IFR PRODUCT. VESSELS AND SHIPS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS VISIBILITY MAY BE LESS THAN 3 MILES IN THIS REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCAT DATA INDICATE A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N61W SW TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR 13N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE. A BROAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS EXTENDS S ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E TRADES CONTINUE TO BLOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA...AND FROM THE MONA PASSAGE SW-W TO S OF HISPANIOLA TO COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE TODAY WED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRI MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-12 FT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THEY WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT AS IS INDICATED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. HISPANIOLA... STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS SURFACE AND MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGING PROVIDE STABILITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HIGH PRESSURE AT 1027 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 29N72W WITH BROAD RIDGING DOMINATING THE SW N ATLC. A COLD FRONT ENTER THE NORTH- CENTRAL ATLC WATERS FROM 30N43W TO 17N56W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR LINE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE N OF 21N WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE S TO SW WINDS ARE N OF 25N TO 38W WITH A MAX OF SEAS OF 11 FT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE N OF 29N W OF THE FRONT TO 65W WITH MAX SEAS OF 10 FT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND WASH OUT AS IT CONTINUES TO THE E-SE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY THU...THEN WILL DRIFT E THROUGH THU NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SW PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH FRI MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE THE REMAINDER BASIN E OF THE FRONT. 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