000 AXNT20 KNHC 090606 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED MAR 09 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... E ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA OF AGADIR IN METAREA II. NORTHERLY GALE TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES... GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/ BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2 FOR MORE DETAILS. CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES OF A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW N ATLC WATERS WILL INTENSIFY BY WED NIGHT...THUS ACTING TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A MAX OF 15 FT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NW GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU EVENING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WED EVENING THROUGH WED NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 10N14W INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC THROUGH 07N16W TO 02N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 02N21W AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N33W TO 01S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 01S-05N BETWEEN 13W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SW N ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 30N74W. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO APPROACHES THE WESTERN BASIN. THE LATEST SCAT PASS SHOWS SE TO S WINDS 25 TO 30 KT...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER WESTERN GULF WATERS N OF 21N. FRESH TO STRONG RETURN FLOW DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF WED EVENING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS PERSISTING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THU MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO A MAX OF 15 FT BY THU MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...DENSE FOG IS BEING REPORTED IN THE NW BASIN N OF 26N COINCIDING WITH MODERATE FOG PROBABILITIES IN THE GOES IFR PRODUCT. VESSELS AND SHIPS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS VISIBILITY MAY BE LESS THAN 3 MILES. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N61W TO 14N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60-75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. BROAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH PRES LOCATED W-NW OF THE FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN FROM THE SW N ATLANTIC. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E TRADES ARE ALREADY BLOWING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA...AND FROM THE MONA PASSAGE SW-W TO S OF HISPANIOLA TO COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE TODAY WED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRI MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-12 FT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THEY WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT AS IS INDICATED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. HISPANIOLA... STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS SURFACE AND MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGING PROVIDE STABILITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HIGH PRESSURE AT 1027 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 30N74W WITH BROAD RIDGING DOMINATING THE SW N ATLC AND A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL BASIN. A COLD FRONT ENTER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC WATERS FROM 30N45W TO 17N58W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE N OF 21N WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG ANTICYCLONIC WINDS PREVAIL AROUND THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND ATTENDANT RIDGING WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NW PORTIONS CLOSEST TO THE HIGH LOCATION. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND WASH OUT AS IT CONTINUES TO THE E-SE DURING THE NEXT 24-42 HOURS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU...THEN WILL DRIFT E THROUGH THU NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SW PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER BASIN E OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR