000 AXNT20 KNHC 082310 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE MAR 08 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... E ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE FOR THE AREAS OF AGADIR AND TARFAYA IN METAREA II. NORTHERLY GALE TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES... GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/ BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2 FOR MORE DETAILS. NW GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WED EVENING THROUGH WED NIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE THU MORNING...DIMINISHING BY THU AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN GALE... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA WILL INTENSIFY SUPPORTING PULSING GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-76W BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10- 14 FT BY THU AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 10.5N14.5W INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC THROUGH 06N17W TO 02N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N21W TO 01N30W TO THE EQUATOR AT 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 02N-18W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W AND 36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A STATIONARY 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC NEAR 31N76W. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN GULF WITH FRESH TO STRONG RETURN FLOW ALREADY PREVAILING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY LOW PRESSURE AND WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF WED EVENING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS PERSISTING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-15 FT BY LATE WED AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR GUADELOUPE TO 14N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60-75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. BROAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH PRES IS LOCATED W-NW OF THE FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SW N ATLANTIC. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E TRADES ARE ALREADY BLOWING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA...AND FROM THE MONA PASSAGE SW-W TO S OF HISPANIOLA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TONIGHT THROUGH WED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THU AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8- 12 FT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN BY THEN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THEY WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF COASTAL LOCATIONS UNDER PREVAILING NE/ONSHORE FLOW...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HIGH PRESSURE AT 1028 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 31N76W WITH BROAD RIDGING DOMINATING THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N46W TO 20N55W TO NEAR GUADELOUPE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE N OF 21N WITHIN 240-360 NM E OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG ANTICYCLONIC WINDS PREVAIL AROUND THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND ATTENDANT RIDGING WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NW PORTIONS CLOSEST TO THE HIGH LOCATION. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND WASH OUT AS IT CONTINUES TO THE E-SE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU...THEN WILL DRIFT E-SE THROUGH THU NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SW PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LEWITSKY