000 AXNT20 KNHC 081139 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE MAR 08 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... E ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE FOR THE AREAS OF AGADIR AND TARFAYA IN METAREA II. NORTHERLY GALE TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH NUMEROUS GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/ PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2 FOR MORE DETAILS. W ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N51W ALONG 24N55W THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. THE AREA OF S GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE N OF 29N WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT AND NW GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 30N BETWEEN 57W-61W. THE AREAS OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SHIFT E THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN GO BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W ALONG 7N18W TO 3N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N32W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF 4N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 3W-13W...FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 10W- 20W...FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 20W-32W...FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 20W- 28W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 34W-47W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF 3N W OF 47W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF THIS MORNING ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W ACROSS THE N GULF COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SURFACE RIDGE AND THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND N MEXICO IS GIVING THE GULF FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. PATCHES OF HAZE OR FOG ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING OFFSHORE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF NE MEXICO N OF 24N AND TEXAS TO THE BORDER OF LOUISIANA. A SMALL AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF 23N96W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE BY TONIGHT...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE W GULF WED. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR GALVESTON BAY TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 20N WED NIGHT...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THU MORNING. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA THROUGH 23N92W TO 18N94.5W THU NIGHT AND SLOWLY DRIFT E THROUGH FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W TO 14N70W WITH A PRE- FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO 15N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM W AND 75 NM E OF THE FRONT INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 17N- 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N- 19N BETWEEN 78W-84W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN ON TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE W ATLC...THE NW AND N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN LEE OF CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE AREA N OF 13.5N BETWEEN 64W AND 81W BY LATE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY TUE AND PULSE AS HIGH AS GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT ON FRI. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND AGAIN THIS MORNING DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH TODAY WITH SOME CLEARING BY TONIGHT INTO WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 31N75W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N51W ALONG 24N55W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N63W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N50W ALONG 23N54W OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH WED NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN THU INTO FRI. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THU. STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA LATER TODAY THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW