000 AXNT20 KNHC 080547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE MAR 08 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... E ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE FOR THE AREAS OF AGADIR AND TARFAYA IN METAREA II. NORTHERLY TO GALE FORCE WINDS WITH NUMEROUS GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2 FOR MORE DETAILS. W ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N54W ALONG 23N58W THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. THE AREA OF S TO SW GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE N OF 29N E OF FRONT TO 51W AND W TO NW GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 29N W OF FRONT TO 62W. THE AREAS OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SHIFT E THROUGH EARLY TUE THEN GO BELOW GALE FORCE TUE AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W ALONG 5N19W TO 3N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N30W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 7W-20W AND FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 20W-32W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 41W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W ACROSS THE SE CONUS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SURFACE RIDGE AND THE DEEPENING LOWER PRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND N MEXICO IS GIVING THE GULF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. PATCHES OF HAZE ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE NW GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING OFFSHORE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF NE MEXICO N OF 25N AND TEXAS W OF 94W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE W GULF WED. THE FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM SW LOUISIANA TO THE SW GULF NEAR 19N95W THU MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64.5W TO 15N71W WITH A PRE- FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W TO 15N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 70W- 84W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 79W- 84W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN ON TUE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE W ATLC...THE NW AND N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN LEE OF CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE AREA N OF 13.5N BETWEEN 64W AND 81W THROUGH LATE TUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY TUE AND PULSE AS HIGH AS GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT FROM WED TO FRI. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH TUE WITH SOME CLEARING BY TUE EVENING INTO WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N77W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N54W ALONG 23N58W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N64.5W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N52W ALONG 21N57W OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 22N AND N OF 26N BETWEEN 47W-51W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH WED NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN THU INTO FRI. FRESH TO STRONG RETURN FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE AREA FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY FRI THEN DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW