000 AXNT20 KNHC 071759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON MAR 07 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING FORECAST FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...AGADIR AND TARFAYA. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS OF...PERSISTENCE OF NORTHERLY NEAR GALE OR GALE IN...AGADIR AND TARFAYA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 06N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N16W TO 05N21W 01N30W AND 01N37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 06N SOUTHWARD MOSTLY BETWEEN 35W AND 58W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FROM 24N NORTHWARD FROM 92W WESTWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N80W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 28N83W...TO 25N87W...INTO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... MVFR...KBBF...KBQX...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...AND KGBK. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR IN THE COASTAL PLAINS SECTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LIFR IN ALICE. MVFR IN ROBSTOWN AND CORPUS CHRISTI AND PORT LAVACA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN PALACIOS. MVFR IN BAY CITY AND ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. MVFR IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. IN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...VFR/ NO CEILINGS. ALABAMA...MVFR IN THE MOBILE METROPOLITAN AREA. FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE EXCEPT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA TO THE EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF HONDURAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO PANAMA AND 80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.25 IN ST.THOMAS IN THE U.S.A. VIRGIN ISLANDS...0.15 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.08 IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.07 IN KINGSTON IN JAMAICA. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W...IN MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... BARAHONA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 7000 FEET ALSO. LA ROMANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 9000 FEET. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 7000 FEET. PUERTO PLATA...RAINSHOWERS ARE CLOSE TO THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. EXPECT WESTERLY WIND FLOW DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SOME SUBTLE VARIATIONS IN THE POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE CHANGES IN THE WIND DIRECTION...EITHER FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE WEST...AND/OR THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO AS A TROUGH FORMS FROM PUERTO RICO TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY TWO...IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS FROM AN EVENTUAL 33N76W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG 76W/77W. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 26N65W... TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 48W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W...AND FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 58W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.18 IN BERMUDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N28W TO 23N30W AND 14N35W. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD FROM 50W EASTWARD. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 30N45W 23N46W AND 13N51W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N79W TO 26N79W AND TO 21N78W ON THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE OF CUBA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT