000 AXNT20 KNHC 071132 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON MAR 07 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... E ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE FOR THE AREAS OF AGADIR AND TARFAYA IN METAREA II. NORTHERLY TO GALE FORCE WITH NUMEROUS GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2 FOR MORE DETAILS. W ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N53W TO 23N58W TO 18N67W. THE AREA OF SW GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE N OF 28N WITHIN 150 NM E OF FRONT AND NW GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 30N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W. THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SHIFT E THROUGH MON EVENING/NIGHT THEN GO BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY TUE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N15W ALONG 5N17W TO 3N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N26W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 4N15W TO 3N27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 4N W OF 48W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA ALONG 25N91W TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS MONRING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE W ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE W GULF WED. THE FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM SW LOUISIANA TO THE SW GULF NEAR 19N95W BY THU MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN 64W-72W INCLUDING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 83W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N GIVING THAT AREA CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD S INTO THE NW AND N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN LEE OF CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TODAY AND WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE AREA N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 80W LATE TUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TRADES WILL RETURN OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY TUE AND PULSE AS HIGH AS GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT TODAY THEN THE MERGED FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH TUE WITH SOME CLEARING BY TUE EVENING INTO WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA ALONG 28N67W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N59W ALONG 27N64W TO JUST N OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20.5N73.5W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE STATIONARY FRONT AND WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 22N BETWEEN 50W-61W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT THIS MORNING THEN THE MERGED FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH WED. HIGH PRESSURE TRAILS THE FRONT OVER W ATLC AND WILL BUILD S OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THU. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N WINDS BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT OVER NE WATERS WILL SHIFT E LATE TODAY. STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA TUE AND WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW