000 AXNT20 KNHC 070537 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON MAR 07 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... E ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE FOR THE AREAS OF AGADIR AND TARFAYA IN METAREA II. NORTHERLY TO GALE FORCE WITH NUMEROUS GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT IN TARFAYA AND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN AGADIR. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES... GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2 FOR MORE DETAILS. W ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT MON AFTERNOON FOR THE AREA TRAILING A COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N57W TO 25N60W TO 20N72W. THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE N OF 29N BETWEEN 54W-64W. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT E THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN N OF THE AREA EARLY TUE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 3N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 11W-27W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF 4N W OF 46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA ALONG 26N93W TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1023 MB HIGH OVER SW GEORGIA AND A STRONGER 1026 MB HIGH OVER WEST VIRGINIA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE S GULF S OF 25N. HOWEVER...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS WILL INCREASE LOCALLY TO STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY MID-WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE W GULF BY WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT N OF HAITI COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN 64W-73W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 14N-18N W OF 80W INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT OVER THE NW AND N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN LEE OF CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY EARLY MON AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS BY LATE TUE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TRADES WILL RETURN OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY TUE AND PULSE AS HIGH AS GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT DUE TO A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT JUST N OF HAITI AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT EARLY ON MON THEN THE MERGED FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY TUE CONTINUING TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH TUE WITH SOME CLEARING BY WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR BERMUDA ALONG 31N68W 27N71W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTEND THROUGH 32N57W ALONG 26N65W TO JUST N OF HAITI NEAR 20N73W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 24N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT EARLY ON MON THEN THE MERGED FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW