000 AXNT20 KNHC 061721 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN MAR 06 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING IS BEING EMITTED BY METEO-FRANCE FOR THE AREAS OF AGADIR AND TARFAYA IN METAREA II...AS WELL AS IN CANARIAS. NORTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC ENHANCING WINDS/SEAS. WITH THIS...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY TUESDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 30N BETWEEN 59W-65W. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 12-17 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWING THE FRONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W TO 04N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N32W TO 00N44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN US EXTENDS SW OVER THE GULF WATERS. AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN IS SUPPORTING A FRESH TO STRONG ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AS NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW ACROSS E CUBA REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 21N79W TO 19N85W. AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY W OF 75W SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AFFECTING E CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO WEAKEN WHILE MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR W ATLANTIC. THIS NEW BOUNDARY WILL THEN MOVE E WITH CONVECTION AFFECTING THE GREATER ANTILLES. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL SUPPORTED BY ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. EXPECT SIMILAR ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A COLD FRONT MERGES WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND THEN MOVES E WITH CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1016 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N74W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 26N79W. TO THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N55W TO 21N76W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY BETWEEN 56W-70W. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 23N56W TO 19N56W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A STATIONARY 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 41N29W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO DEVELOP IN THE W ATLANTIC AND MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. THIS NEW BOUNDARY WILL MOVE E WITH CONVECTION AND GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS IN ITS VICINITY MAINLY N OF 30N. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA