000 AXNT20 KNHC 060603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN MAR 06 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING IS BEING EMITTED BY METEO-FRANCE FOR THE AREAS OF AGADIR AND TARFAYA IN METAREA II...AND LOCALLY IN CANARIAS. NORTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN LIBERIA AFRICA AND THEN CONTINUES INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO NEAR 06N12W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 03N21W TO 0N33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 16W AND 28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE TAIL OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W...ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...BEING ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER SW LOUISIANA. THE RIDGE PROVIDES GENTLE NE TO E WINDS BASIN-WIDE...BECOMING RETURN FLOW EARLY SUN MORNING AS THE HIGH PRES CENTER MOVES NE TOWARDS N CAROLINA EARLY MON MORNING. AN INCREASE IN THE PRES GRADIENT WILL GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS IN THE NW AND SE BASIN MON MORNING. OTHERWISE...RIDGING ALOFT AND DRY LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL AIR SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA THEN W ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC EXTENDING INTO NW CARIBBEAN WATERS AND WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...ALONG WITH LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT SHOWERS OVER CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS ARE ALSO IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 18N74W TO 15N83W. SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVES OVER E CARIBBEAN WATERS ENHANCING SHOWERS S OF PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES COVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT WITHIN 60 NM OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE NE FRESH WINDS PREVAIL. BY SUN NIGHT THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE SW N ATLC AND ITS TAIL WILL START TO DISSIPATE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. BY MON NIGHT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND ITS TAIL WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO BRINGING MORE SHOWERS. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE FRONT WILL STALL THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND THE TAIL OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IN THE SW N ATLC WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA MON NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STRONG 978 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER NW ATLC WATERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N59W SW TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERS THE REGION S OF 30N W OF THE FRONT TO 78W BEING SUPPORTED BY ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...THE REMNANTS OF A LOW PRES CENTER ARE ANALYZED AS AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH FROM 32N47W TO 25N43W...SHOWERS ARE N OF 23N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER EASTERN BASIN. BY SUN NIGHT THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE SW N ATLC AND ITS TAIL WILL START TO DISSIPATE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. BY MON NIGHT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND ITS TAIL WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO BRINGING MORE SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR