000 AXNT20 KNHC 052343 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT MAR 05 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING FORECAST FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...AGADIR AND TARFAYA. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS OF...NORTHERLY GALE OR NEAR GALE IN...AGADIR... TARFAYA...AND LOCALLY IN CANARIAS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 10N17W TO 08N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N19W TO 02N28W 01N33W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 35W...TO 02S40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 06N SOUTHWARD MOSTLY BETWEEN 16W AND 43W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N85W TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. MOISTURE AT MANY LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE BAHAMAS...CUBA... PARTS OF FLORIDA...IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... FROM 16N TO 32N BETWEEN 62W AND 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...TO 24N95W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 19N102W IN MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LIFR...KVOA. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR IN WESLACO AND PORT ISABEL...VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE IN TEXAS. FROM LOUISIANA TO FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE EXCEPT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM HAITI TO THE EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF HONDURAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 05/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.05 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.02 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 2000 FEET. A CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT 4500 FEET...VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO...RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY. LA ROMANA...A CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT 1800 FEET...MVFR. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED. PUERTO PLATA...LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND CLOUD CEILINGS AT 1600 FEET AND 8000 FEET ALSO ARE BEING REPORTED. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. EXPECT WESTERLY WIND FLOW DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SOME SUBTLE VARIATIONS IN THE POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE CHANGES IN THE WIND DIRECTION...EITHER FROM THE WEST...THE SOUTHWEST...AND/OR THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. EXPECT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF DAY ONE...AND SOUTHWEST WIND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY ONE. EXPECT THE SAME CONDITIONS FOR DAY TWO...AND MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 27N66W TO 24N71W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 24N71W TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W...AND 22N85W. THE FRONT BECOMES DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 22N85W TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N61W 30N57W...BEYOND 32N56W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N TO 27N BETWEEN 47W AND 56W...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 05/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.29 IN BERMUDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N35W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 25N34W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 19N36W AND TO 05N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 39W/40W FROM 21N TO 26N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 25W AND 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT