000
AXNT20 KNHC 051717
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 PM EST SAT MAR 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 13N17W TO 13N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 01N26W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 03S42W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 02S-04N BETWEEN 25W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   

A STRONG 979 MB LOW OVER NW ATLC WATERS AT 40N63W SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO NW CUBA
AND ENDS AT 22N90W. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN
BASIN EXTENDS FROM THE FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA...SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
THE SE PORTION OF THE BASIN MAINLY S OF 28N AND E OF 85W. DRY
AIR PUSHING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO AND NORTHERN TEXAS WILL KEEP THE
WESTERN BASIN RELATIVELY DRY...AND WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KT FROM
NORTHEAST. AS THE ATLC FRONT DISSIPATES IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...WINDS OFF OF
WESTERN FL WILL BE MORE DOMINANT FROM THE NORTH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN ALONG
WITH A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN
GUATEMALA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE
MAINLY N OF 18N AND W OF 80W. THERE IS ALSO A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ANALYZED AS A COLD
FRONT FROM 22N87W TO 22N81W. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN...SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES IS ENHANCING SCATTERED CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AFFECTING HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS E THEN DISSIPATE ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. 

HISPANIOLA...                              

SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING
THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                             

A STRONG 979 MB LOW CENTERED OVER NW ATLANTIC WATERS SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N79W TO 32N62W. AREAS OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT SUPPORTED BY A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AT LOWER LEVELS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF
30N. TO THE E...A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N51W.
A WEAK 1019 SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED E OF THIS HIGH NEAR 30N45W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 41N29W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COLD
FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION WHILE THE SOUTHER
PORTION WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA/SKH