000
AXNT20 KNHC 050604
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 AM EST SAT MAR 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA AND THEN
INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 0N26W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03S TO 04N BETWEEN
19W AND 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   

A STRONG 984 MB LOW OVER NW ATLC WATERS NEAR 38N68W SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THEN SW
TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERN BASIN AND A DIVERGENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN GUATEMALA TO THE NW
CARIBBEAN SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
CHANNEL AND THE SE GULF WATERS S OF 27N. LIGHTING DENSITY DATA
SHOW HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. N
OF 26N...SURFACE HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD BEING ANCHORED BY A
1021 MB HIGH OFF SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IN THIS REGION SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS GENTLE NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT IN THE NW
GULF N OF 28N WHERE MODERATE SE WINDS ARE OBSERVED. BY LATE SAT
NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST N OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THEN RIDGING WITH DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH
EARLY MON MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN
ALONG WITH A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN
GUATEMALA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUPPORTS HEAVY SHOWERS OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CHANNEL...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS
W OF 82W. ISOLATED LIGHT CONVECTION AFFECTS MOST OF THE ISLAND
OF CUBA. OVER THE REMAINDER NORTHERN BASIN...SHALLOW MOISTURE
TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADEWIND FLOW MAY ENHANCE SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES COVER THE
BASIN...EXCEPT WITHIN 60 NM OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST WHERE FRESH
TO STRONG NE FLOW CONTINUES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THESE
REGIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER WEEKEND...INCREASING FOR
HISPANIOLA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A FRONT MOVES JUST N OF THE
ISLAND.

HISPANIOLA...                              

CLOUDINESS COVERS THE CENTRAL ISLAND WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND DURING THE WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SHOWERS. HEAVY
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY MON
MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES OVER ATLC WATERS JUST N OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                             

A STRONG 984 MB LOW OVER NW ATLC WATERS NEAR 38N68W SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N67W SW TO 25N76W...ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND THEN SW TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO WHERE IT
STARTS TO DISSIPATE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 30N66W TO 24N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH N OF 22N TO 58W. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A 1016 MB LOW IS
NEAR 25N40W WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 29N42W TO THE
LOW CENTER TO 21N40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 350
NM E OF THE LOW. IN THE TROPICAL ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 20N49W TO 15N54W. OTHERWISE...HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 22W AND
28W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR