000
AXNT20 KNHC 042325
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 PM EST FRI MAR 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA AND THEN INTO
THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 02N24W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE WATERS N OF COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL
NEAR 00N42W. ISOLATED CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 50 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ MAINLY W OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   

A STRONG 987 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA AT 37N72W SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL
GULF AT 27N82W THRU 25N97W. SIGNS OF WEAKENING OFF THE COAST OF
MEXICO IS NOTICEABLE ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE. THE
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS WINDS UP TO 20 KT FROM THE NW BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL SEE LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY SOUTH OF 23N AND
WEST OF 89W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING OFFSHORE OF YUCATAN PENINSULA.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN
ALONG WITH A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORTS ISOLATED LIGHT
TO MODERATE CONVECTION W OF 80W AFFECTING PORTIONS OF W CUBA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...SHALLOW
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE BASIN AFFECTING THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME TO PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...                              

SHALLOW MOISTURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND TRANSPORTED BY THE
TRADES SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                             

A STRONG 987 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
37N72W. ITS RELATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 32N73W
TO 28N80W. AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAIL ALONG
AND E OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 30N. TO THE E OF THE FRONT...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N61W TO 24N72W. SCATTERED LIGHT
TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 26N BETWEEN 61W-69W. A
1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N53W. TO THE SE OF THIS
FEATURE...A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 25N41W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N43W TO THE LOW TO 22N41W TO
19N43W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE TROUGH AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED E OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 20N48W TO 14N60W WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A STATIONARY 1030 MB HIGH
CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE MOVING E
WITH CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA/SKH