000 AXNT20 KNHC 041119 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI MAR 04 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 34N75W SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 30N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA AND THEN INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W TO 02N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 0N30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 06S TO 06N W OF 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTS A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 34N75W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 28N90W TO N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA EXTENDING INTO THE E GULF WATERS E OF 85W. OVER THE NW BASIN N OF 27N...THE GOES IFR PRODUCT SHOW HIGH FOG PROBABILITIES BEING CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. VESSELS AND BOATS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THIS REGION AS VISIBILITY MAY BE LESS THAN THREE MILES. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED TO THE SOUTHERN BASIN ALONG WITH A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION INCLUDING...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS S OF THE COLD FRONT AND FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLIES N OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WHEN THE IT WILL START DISSIPATING FROM THE STRAITS TO N OF TAMPICO MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW BASIN ALONG WITH A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION INCLUDING...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND CUBA. SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA ENHANCING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW PREVAILS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGES THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES N OF THE ISLAND IN THE SW N ATLC WATERS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTS A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 34N75W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 29N81W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 28N90W TO N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. GALE- FORCE WINDS ARE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. FARTHER E...THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N61W TO 29N65W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO 26N72W. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF 62. A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N55W THAT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATING LATE TONIGHT. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N42W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS TO 20N40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE E OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRES TO 36W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE E BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 28N26W TO 22N19W WITH SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. IN THE TROPICAL ATLC E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...A 1014 MB LOW IS NEAR 17N51W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING E TO 18N48W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR