000
AXNT20 KNHC 032319
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 PM EST THU MAR 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SE US THIS EVENING REACHING THE W
ATLANTIC WATERS BY EARLY FRIDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 29N W OF 73W. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N13W TO 05N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 03S36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ITCZ FROM 3N-9S AND W OF 22W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   

A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER E ARKANSAS WITH ITS COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SW ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
NW GULF WATERS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 27N
AND W OF 90W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN S OF 27N ADVECTED FROM
THE EPAC AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHER
TEXAS TO MOVE S ACROSS THE NW GULF WITH CONVECTION AND ENHANCING
WIND/SEAS. PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW GULF AS THIS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 80W AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
W CUBA AND SOUTHERN ISLANDS. TO THE E...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN
AFFECTING HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERATED BETWEEN HIGHER PRESSURES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BASIN MAINLY S OF 14N BETWEEN 73W-77W. EXPECT A SIMILAR
WEATHER REGIME TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...                              

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND
TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                             

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 27N78W TO
32N62W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TO
THE E...A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N55W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN 40W-50W SUPPORTS A 1018 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED NEAR 28N43W. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW
FROM THE LOW TO 21N43W TO 15N55W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN
43W-53W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED 41N28W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE W
ATLANTIC ENHANCING WINDS/SEAS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 

ERA