000 AXNT20 KNHC 031124 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU MAR 03 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W ALONG 16N14W TO 4N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N22W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 30W- 34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 2N18W TO 3N26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND/E CANADA INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING AT 03/0900 UTC A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC BECOMING A STATIONARY FRONT BEFORE IT CROSSES S/CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR BOCA RATON AND INTO THE GULF BETWEEN FORT MYERS AND NAPLES 26N83W TO 26N90W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 30N GIVING THE GULF WATERS SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE S OF 26N. PATCHES OF FOG ARE BEING REPORTED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER W VIRGINIA. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF TONIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE E OF THE GULF BY FRI NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA/E PANAMA ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-85W INCLUDING CENTRAL CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN S OF 16N E OF 83W. FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI...PULSING TO STRONG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE SAT INTO SUN. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AGAIN THIS MORNING DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC S OF 33N WITH THE AXIS ACROSS E CUBA TO 33N73W. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND/E CANADA INTO THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 03/0900 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC NEAR BERMUDA ALONG 29N70W TO 27N76W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS S/CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR BOCA RATON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ANDS POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE EXTENDING FROM 29N69W TO 24N71W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W-65W ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 30N55W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE E/CENTRAL IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N43W TO A NEWLY DEVELOPED WEAK 1018 MB LOW NEAR 29N43W WITH A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 25N41W 20N47W 17N55W TO 18N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 32N60W ALONG 26N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY THIS EVENING AND THEN MOSTLY N OF AREA WITH SOUTHERN TIP AT 31N59W BY EARLY FRI. THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH BY TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SAT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SE CONUS BY TONIGHT AND WILL REACH FROM NEAR 32N76W TO VERO BEACH FLORIDA FRI AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 32N63W TO 25N72W SAT BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW