000 AXNT20 KNHC 030538 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU MAR 03 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 6N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N25W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 3N14W TO 4N24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 03/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA BETWEEN BOCA RATON AND NAPLES INTO THE GULF ALONG 26N84W TO 27N93W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 30N GIVING THE GULF WATERS SW TO W-SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 24N. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE N GULF ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER WEST VIRGINIA. THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS SE GULF EARLY THU. NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF THU NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE E OF THE GULF BY FRI NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SAT THROUGH SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 19N BETWEEN 70W- 85W INCLUDING CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT THEN BECOME FRESH WINDS THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS SUN WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUN. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC S OF 30N WITH THE AXIS FROM ACROSS E CUBA TO 30N72W. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 03/0300 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N68W ALONG 28N75W TO ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR BOCA RATON. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W-65W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N55W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N42W ALONG 24N53W 17N57W TO 18N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 32N68W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH OVERNIGHT THEN WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO 25N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU MORNING AND N OF AREA WITH SOUTHERN TIP AT 31N59W BY THU NIGHT. THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH BY THU MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH SAT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SE CONUS THU NIGHT AND WILL REACH FROM NEAR 32N76W TO VERO BEACH FRI AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 32N63W TO 25N72W SAT BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW