000 AXNT20 KNHC 030005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED MAR 02 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 07N12W TO 06N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N14W 04N20W 01N30W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 35W...TO 02N39W... TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ARE COVERING THE ENTIRE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N71W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 32N72W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W...TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...TO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W...TO 27N95W. THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO DISSIPATE NEAR 27N95W...AND IT CONTINUES TO SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 28N100W. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N83W 25N86W 24N88W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 32N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... IFR CONDITIONS...KGBK... MVFR CONDITIONS...KBBF...KBQX...KGVX...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL... AND KGHB. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...IFR IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. MVFR IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. FROM LOUISIANA TO FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE EXCEPT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO EAST CENTRAL COASTAL HONDURAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.05 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.04 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING AT 5000 FEET...VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 7000 FEET. LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...1800 FEET...MVFR. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING DAY ONE...AND WEST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 270 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE EASTERNMOST PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AT THE START OF DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY...AND MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST DURING DAY TWO. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM CUBA...SOUTHEASTWARD...TO HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MOST OF DAY ONE. A SEPARATE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL DEVELOP ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY ONE. EXPECT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF DAY ONE. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N26W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N31W AND 15N38W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 25N43W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS TROUGH MERGES WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE 34N26W 15N38W TROUGH. THE 32N46W 25N43W TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 31N43W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N43W TO 30N43W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N43W TO 27N43W 25N42W 20N50W AND 18N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 23N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 38W AND 43W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 20N50W TO 18N55W TO 16N60W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N31W 24N34W TO 14N31W AND 10N26W. A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N57W...TO 27N71W...AND TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT