000 AXNT20 KNHC 021801 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED MAR 02 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N13W TO 05N18W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 02N30W TO 01N37W AND THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 29W AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND NEAR 30N83W TO 27N90W TO THE S TEXAS COAST NEAR 26N97W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR SARASOTA AT 27N83W TO 26N86W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH EITHER FEATURE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE COLD FRONT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. MAINLY MODERATE E TO SE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. ELSEWHERE...UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM MOISTURE IS STREAMING NE OVER THE SW GULF ENHANCING CLOUD COVER OVER THAT PORTION OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WHILE DISSIPATING OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ON THURSDAY OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY EVENING...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NE GULF AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY N OF 14N. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN BASIN TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN N OF 17N. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND TODAY. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT ITSELF AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 31N78W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE. ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES REMAINS N OF 31N. HOWEVER...SW TO W WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE OCCURRING FROM 29N AND 31N BETWEEN 77W AND THE FL/GA COASTS. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW N ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 31N57W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N42W TO 22N46W TO 19N54W TO 19N63W. A PAIR OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS EXTEND FROM 19N52W TO 14N58W...AND FROM 30N41W TO 23N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N TO 31N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SOUTHERNMOST SURFACE TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT OVER FLORIDA WILL MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 30N65W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE BAHAMAS TO S FLORIDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO