000 AXNT20 KNHC 021129 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED MAR 02 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 7N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N28W 1N40W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 4W-8W AND FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER E CONUS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO TEXAS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS AT 02/0900 UTC FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ALONG 28N93W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC GIVING THE GULF WATERS SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE S GULF S OF 26N AND COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE N GULF. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE E GULF THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE TO E OF THE GULF BY EARLY ON THU. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY FOLLOW THE FRONT TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF THU NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE E OF THE BASIN BY FRI NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS E CUBA TO OVER E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-85W INCLUDING CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN S OF 17N. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT THEN BECOME FRESH WINDS THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS SUN WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. LINGERING MOISTURE COULD CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC FROM E CUBA TO BEYOND 32N73W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W-75W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N61W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N42W TO 26N43W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 21N49W TO 19N55W THEN DISSIPATES TO 19N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 19N52W TO 16N56W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 25N41W TO 19N38W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE E ATLC THROUGH THU. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE CONUS THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 32N72W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH THIS EVENING THEN WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY THU AND FROM NEAR 32N58W TO 25N72W THEN STATIONARY TO 24N75W ON FRI WITH ITS WESTERN PORTION LIFTING BACK N AS A WARM FRONT N OF THE BAHAMAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI THEN WILL REACH FROM NEAR 32N74W TO VERO BEACH LATER OF FRI BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 32N63W TO 25N67W ON SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW