000
AXNT20 KNHC 020554
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 AM EST WED MAR 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 7N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 3N24W 1N31W 1N40W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO
S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 6W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE ITCZ TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
36W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   
 
SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO TEXAS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY INLAND
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 27N W
OF 87W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE
W ATLC/E GULF OF MEXICO GIVING THE GULF WATERS SW FLOW ALOFT.
THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE S GULF S OF 27N
AND COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. A WEAKENING
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY 1025 MB HIGH IN THE W
ATLC. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE FRONT OVER
TEXAS MOVES INTO THE NW GULF. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE N
GULF BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF EARLY THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF THU NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE E OF THE BASIN BY FRI
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ON SAT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   
 
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA TO OVER E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. A REMNANT SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 21N82W TO OFF THE NE
COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN 65W-85W INCLUDING E CUBA
AND HISPANIOLA. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AS
WELL AS CLEAR SKIES DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN S OF
17N. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS IN THE S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH FRI
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE.  

HISPANIOLA...                              

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. LINGERING
MOISTURE COULD CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND
THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                             

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF OF
MEXICO AND W ATLC FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N76W. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 50W ANCHORED BY A
1025 MB HIGH S OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N64W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N42W ALONG 24N44W TO 19N57W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY ALONG 20N62W TO 20N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
23N. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1037 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE E ATLC THROUGH THU. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE
WILL MOVE E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH SUNRISE WED AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. THE FRONT WILL REACH
FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA BY EARLY THU THEN WEAKEN AND
SHIFT E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY FRI AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW