000
AXNT20 KNHC 012355 RRA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 PM EST TUE MAR 01 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 04N22W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 01N30W TO 02N42W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01S47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR
THE PRIME  MERIDIAN FROM 00N-05N BETWEEN 00W-04W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-02S BETWEEN 35W-41W.   
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   
 
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 30N65W EXTENDS ACROSS N FLORIDA AND
ACROSS THE GULF TO NEAR VERA CRUZ MEXICO. MAINLY 10-15 KT SE TO
S WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF BASIN TODAY. A COLD FRONT VOID OF
CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY OVER SE TEXAS MOVING QUICKLY SE. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS
WHILE A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER TEXAS WHILE MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE
GULF. BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT
FOR THE NE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S TEXAS MOSTLY VOID OF CONVECTION.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...   
 
AS OF 2100 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF AN OLD STATIONARY
FRONT...EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 21N81W TO 17N85W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. PATCHES
OF SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
N OF 17N. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE SE OF THE TROUGH WITH
STRONGEST WIND ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
AXIS ALONG 80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS OVER CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN.  

HISPANIOLA...                              

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTS OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO
TRADEWIND FLOW...AND DUE TO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NE OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT SHOWERS OVER
THE ISLAND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...             
               
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N65W. A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N43W TO 26N44W TO
22N50W TO 20N56. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO N OF HISPANIOLA
AT 21N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONTS. A
1036 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 39N22W. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N78W TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA MOSTLY VOID OF CONVECTION. EXPECT AN INCREASE OF
SHOWERS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM 30N42W TO 20N50W
WITH SHOWERS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
FORMOSA