000
AXNT20 KNHC 011739 RRA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 PM EST TUE MAR 01 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 06N11W TO 04N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 02N30W TO 01N40W AND THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF
22W...AND FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 05W AND 15W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   
 
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS N FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE GULF TO
NEAR VERA CRUZ MEXICO. MAINLY MODERATE SE TO S WINDS ARE OVER
THE GULF BASIN TODAY. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN THE FORM OF A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N87W TO 25N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL MOVE OVER THE NW GULF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH THIS
FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR N OF THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES SE OVER THE GULF BASIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   
 
A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT...AS OF
1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM 20N82W TO 17N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. PATCHES OF SHOWERS IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW ARE MAINLY N OF 16N OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF
THE CARIBBEAN TODAY...EXCEPT LIGHT WINDS SE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH N OF 16N...AND FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE COLOMBIA COAST BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
SURFACE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SHOWERS.

HISPANIOLA...                              

SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ARE OCCURRING DUE TO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NE OF THE ISLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE OVER THE WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND ARE DUE TO
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ENHANCED
MOISTURE DRIFTING SW OVER THE ISLAND. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                             

SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE SW N ATLC ANCHORED BY SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 30N66N. A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION
NEAR 31N44W TO 24N48W TO 20N57W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 21N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A PAIR OF PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGHS EXTEND FROM 26N44W TO 22N48W...AND FROM 21N51W TO
17N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THESE TROUGHS AXIS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL
EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN FL/GA COASTS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
LATTO