000 AXNT20 KNHC 011116 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE MAR 01 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W ALONG 9N17W TO 5N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N30W 1N37W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 2W-14W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SW AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 29W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... VERY BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES INTO THE NW ATLC. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO GIVE THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N86W TO 25N97W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA AND A SECOND STRONGER 1024 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC. SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS E OF THE GULF TODAY. MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE N GULF LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS EARLY ON WED THEN WEAKEN AS IT QUICKLY MOVES E OF THE GULF WED NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF THU NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE E OF THE GULF BY FRI NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE W ATLC. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 20N84W TO OFF THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 19N BETWEEN 77W- 83W AND OVER SE HAITI. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS CLEAR SKIES DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN S OF 16N E OF 83W. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH FRI WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS S HAITI THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. LINGERING MOISTURE COULD CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 55W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE SAME AREA ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH S OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N64W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N45W ALONG 28N45W TO 23N51W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 21N58W THEN DISSIPATES ALONG 20N63W TO 21N69W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT FROM 27N44W ALONG 24N46W TO 22N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT E SLIGHTLY BEFORE STALLING ALONG 32N44W 27N43W TO 22N46W TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT E ALONG 30N AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA COAST WED. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 32N72W TO WEST PALM BEACH EARLY WED NIGHT THEN WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 32N66W TO 25N72W AND TO E CUBA EARLY ON THU. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND WEAKEN FROM NEAR 32N58W ALONG 28N65W TO 25N71W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE BY FRI AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW