000
AXNT20 KNHC 010552
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 AM EST TUE MAR 01 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 9N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 5N22W 1N31W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO
INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 2W-9W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-29W AND
FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 32W-38W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   
 
VERY BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAIN STATES INTO THE NW ATLC. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO GIVE THE GULF SW FLOW
ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 86W FROM 22N-28N WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH N OF 25N.
THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT E WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
COVERING THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF
CEDAR KEY FLORIDA AND A SECOND STRONGER 1024 MB HIGH IN THE W
ATLC. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUE. MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE N GULF TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS EARLY ON WED THEN WEAKEN AS IT QUICKLY
MOVES E OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE N GULF THU NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE E OF THE GULF BY FRI NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...   
 
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE W ATLC. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 21N82W TO INLAND OVER NE HONDURAS NEAR
16N85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 19N BETWEEN 77W-83W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER SE HISPANIOLA. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS CLEAR SKIES DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN S OF 17N E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. FRESH
TO STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
STRENGTHEN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THU WITH MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE.  

HISPANIOLA...                              

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS SE HISPANIOLA TONIGHT S OF 19NW OF
70W WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND.
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
THE ISLAND THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                             

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF
55W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE SAME AREA ANCHORED BY A
1024 MB HIGH E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF 22N AND IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N46W ALONG 26N47W TO 21N569W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 20N63W TO THE TURKS AND
CAICOS NEAR 21N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1036 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT E
SLIGHTLY BEFORE STALLING ALONG 32N44W 27N43W TO 22N46W TUE
NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS E ALONG 30N THROUGH AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY
WED REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA LATE WED NIGHT THEN
STALL AND WEAKEN S OF 27N AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
THROUGH FRI. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW