000
AXNT20 KNHC 291758 RRA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 03N18W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W TO 02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 37W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   
 
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ANCHORED BY A
1024 MB HIGH OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
COVER THE NE GULF. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS COVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF. MODERATE SE WINDS COVER THE NW GULF. A FEW PATCHES OF
SHOWERS COVER THE GULF BASIN IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...THE GULF IS FREE OF CONVECTION.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE NW GULF TUESDAY EVENING AND WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY NIGHT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   
 
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO NEAR 19N78W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A SURFACE TROUGH
TO THE NICARAGUA COAST NEAR 15N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS. MAINLY MODERATE MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST BETWEEN 73W AND 77W.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT NW WITH SHOWERS. 

HISPANIOLA...                              

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER HISPANIOLA IN EASTERLY FLOW
TO THE SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CLIPS THE NW CORNER OF
HAITI. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE ISLAND IN TRADE
WIND FLOW. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                             

SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE SW N ATLC ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF
HIGH CENTERS OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND NEAR 31N66N. A TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA
OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N49W TO 25N52W TO 21N62W...WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 21N70W TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE NEAR 19N75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N TO
31N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH
SHOWERS. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC WILL REMAIN IN
TACT. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
LATTO