000 AXNT20 KNHC 290001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 01N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01S30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 02S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S TO 05N BETWEEN 13W AND 30W. GOES LIGHTING DENSITY PRODUCT INDICATES SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ALSO PRESENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07S TO 02N W OF 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER ATLC WATERS E OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA NEAR 31N78W EXTENDS SW TO COVER THE SE CONUS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE IT PROVIDES GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW. ALOFT...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SW TO W FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL EPAC WATERS...THUS SUPPORTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES MAINLY OVER THE W GULF. HOWEVER...DRY AND STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR FAVORS FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. A 1023 MB CENTER OF HIGH PRES DEVELOPED OVER NE GULF WATERS NEAR 29N84W AND WILL PREVAIL NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING...THUS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW BASIN-WIDE. NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS BEHIND IT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER N ATLC WATERS WITH BASE NEAR 30N CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA THAT STARTS TO STALL NEAR 24N63W TO N HAITI NEAR 19N72W...ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND JAMAICA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES SW FROM 18N78W TO 12N84W. SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...INCLUDING EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS FAVORED ELSEWHERE DUE TO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE. IN TERMS OF WIND...FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE FLOW IS W OF THE FRONT TO 81W FROM 18N TO 20.5N WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 10 FT. ALSO...S OF 15N W OF FRONT N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. ADDITIONALLY...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE IN THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 11 FT. THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY MON MORNING...LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE W INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE NIGHT. WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY MONDAY MORNING. HISPANIOLA... CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN HAITI SW ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE EARLY MON MORNING. DESPITE THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH E OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA NEAR 31N78W EXTENDS SE TO COVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS W OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N63W TO N HAITI NEAR 19N72W...ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND JAMAICA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N52W SW TO 24N63W WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONT STARTS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. THE COLD PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH WED MORNING WHEN IT WILL START DISSIPATING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE 20 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 8 TO 9 FT DUE TO NW SWELL. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER ATLC WATERS E OF THE FRONT N OF 20N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SW N ATLC BY MID- WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR