000 AXNT20 KNHC 281715 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 03N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 00N-05S BETWEEN 25W- 39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTH FLORIDA NEAR 31N83W EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER AND A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NW GULF BY LATE TUESDAY SUPPORTING CONVECTION AND ENHANCING WINDS/SEAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO EXTENDS S REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 80W. TO THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM 10N83W TO 17N79W TO THE NW COAST OF HAITI NEAR 20N73W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AFFECTING E CUBA...JAMAICA AND HAITI...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL E OF THE FRONT. THESE TRADES ARE TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AND LATER DISSIPATE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HISPANIOLA... CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE ISLAND AS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXPECT FOR THIS FRONT TO WEAKEN AND THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DESPITE THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N83W. TO THE E...A FRONTAL SYSTEM PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN. IT WAS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 20N72W TO 26N60W THEN TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 32N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 49W-60W WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT. E OF THIS ACTIVITY...THE REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WAS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N42W TO 27N41. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N29W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE W ATLANTIC BY MID-WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA