000 AXNT20 KNHC 281126 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W ALONG 9N18W TO 4N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N27W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 33W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 31W-38W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 11W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 41W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND COVERING THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF MAINLY S OF 25N W OF 85W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF THIS MORNING ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY. SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E OF THE AREA MON. MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATE TUE NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND INCLUDES THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC OVER NW HAITI/WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N72.5W OVER JAMAICA NEAR 18N77.5W ALONG 15N81W TO OFF THE NICARAGUA COAST NEAR 11N83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 18N AND N OF 18N BETWEEN 71W-81W INCLUDING E CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS CLEAR SKIES DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL BE W OF THE FRONT THAT WILL DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL STRENGTHEN EACH NIGHT THROUGH THU WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE ISLAND W OF 70.5W WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH TUE WITH SOME CLEARING TUE NIGHT AND WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 30N IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N53W TO 25N63W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NW HAITI/WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N72.5W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 210 NM W OF THE ENTIRE FRONT AND WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. A REINFORCING SURGE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC FROM 30N60W TO 22N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH E OF 70W AND WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE TROUGH ELSEWHERE. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 50W. A SECOND SHARPER UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 32N38W 24N37W TO 7N36W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N39W TO 23N42W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS INDUCING AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E WHICH IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 21N27W TO 26N36W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 50W IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E REACHING FROM 32N51W TO 24N59W WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W BY SUN NIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT TODAY THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH MON. GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUN THROUGH MON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS WED AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW