000 AXNT20 KNHC 280537 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N11W TO 4N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N26W 2N40W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 15W-26W AND FROM THE ITCZ TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 31W-39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE ITCZ TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND COVERING THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF MAINLY S OF 26N W OF 85W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH JUST OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 29N87W. SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA EARLY SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE W GULF SUN THROUGH TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE N GULF WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND INCLUDES THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC OVER NW HAITI/WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W ALONG 18N78W TO OFF THE NICARAGUA COAST NEAR 14N83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT INCLUDING CUBA... HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS CLEAR SKIES DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY SUN NIGHT BECOMING A FRONTAL TROUGH WITH FRESH N TO NE WINDS W OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL STRENGTHEN EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE ISLAND W OF 70W WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN NIGHT BECOMING A FRONTAL TROUGH. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH TUE WITH SOME CLEARING TUE NIGHT AND WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH THAT OVER THE W ATLC N OF 30N IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N54W TO 24N66W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NW HAITI/WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE ENTIRE FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. A REINFORCING SURGE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC FROM 30N61W TO 24N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 50W. A SECOND SHARPER UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 32N40W TO 7N36W AND IS INDUCING AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 18N30W TO 27N37W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 55W IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE AZORES WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE SHARP UPPER TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E REACHING FROM 32N51W TO 24N59W WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W BY SUN NIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT SUN THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH MON. GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE RIDGE MOVE INTO THE REGION SUN THROUGH MON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS WED NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW