000 AXNT20 KNHC 272306 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN LIBERIA NEAR 07N11W THEN INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC TO 04N16W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01N34W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S TO 08N W OF 23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER SE LOUISIANA COVERS THE SE CONUS...A PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE IT PROVIDES GENTLE TO MODERATE NE FLOW E OF 90W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW OVER THE WESTERN BASIN. ALOFT...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SW TO W FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL EPAC WATERS...THUS SUPPORTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES OVER THE SW GULF. HOWEVER...DRY AND STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR FAVORS FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SUN MORNING WHEN IT ENTERS SW N ATLC WATERS. A SECOND HIGH PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER NE GULF WATERS EARLY MONDAY AND WILL PREVAIL NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING...THUS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...THUS FAIR WEATHER. NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS EARLY WED MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER N ATLC WATERS WITH BASE NEAR 30N SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA THAT STARTS TO STALL NEAR 23N67W TO NW HAITI NEAR 20N72W...ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND JAMAICA SW TO 15N82W. SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...INCLUDING EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THESE REGIONS. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS FAVORED ELSEWHERE DUE TO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE. IN TERMS OF WIND...FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE FLOW IS W OF THE FRONT S OF 18N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 10 FT. THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY SUN MORNING...LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE W INTO THE YUCATAN EARLY MON. WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HISPANIOLA... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NW HAITI NEAR 20N72W...ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND JAMAICA SW TO 15N82W IN THE CARIBBEAN. SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT SUPPORTS SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND HAITI ADJACENT WATERS...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY SUN MORNING. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND ITS REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER SE LOUISIANA COVERS THE SE CONUS...THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AND SW N ATLC WATERS W OF 71W. TO THE E OF 71W...A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER N ATLC WATERS WITH BASE NEAR 30N SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM 31N56W SW TO 23N67W WHERE IT STARTS TO STALL AND THEN CONTINUES TO NW HAITI NEAR 20N72W...ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...JAMAICA SW TO 15N82W IN THE CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY STALL OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC MON MORNING AND START DISSIPATING LATER THAT DAY. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE 20 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 8 TO 9 FT DUE TO NW SWELL. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER ATLC WATERS E OF THE FRONT N OF 19N. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT JUST E OF IT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 30W AND 38W. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE FROM 12N TO 20N E OF 41W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 9 TO 10 FT. WINDS IN THIS REGION ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY SUN AFTERNOON...HOWEVER NE TO E SWELL WILL SUPPORT SEAS UP TO 9 FT THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS