000 AXNT20 KNHC 261136 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS... ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS OF...THREAT OF NORTH OR NORTHWEST ALONG COAST AND BETWEEN ISLANDS IN...AGADIR...TARFAYA...CANARIAS...CAP BLANC...AND CAP TIMIRIS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 07N11W TO 02N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 02N14W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 15W...TO 03S20W...05S26W AND 04S36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 04N02W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WIND FLOW REGIME FOLLOWS THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL AREAS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS AND 23N77W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... MVFR CONDITIONS...KGVX... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... VFR/NO CEILINGS. ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW FROM FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST IS DISAPPEARING WITH TIME. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW STILL REMAINS FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 100W IN THE U.S.A. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...TO 27N70W... ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 19N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO EASTERN HONDURAS AND ACROSS NORTHERN NICARAGUA. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM SOUTHERN HONDURAS...ACROSS EL SALVADOR...INTO SOUTHERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES ACROSS BERMUDA...TO 28N70W...TO CUBA NEAR 21N78W...TO 20N82W...TO THE COMMON BORDER AREA OF GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.02 IN BERMUDA. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 19N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO EASTERN HONDURAS AND ACROSS NORTHERN NICARAGUA. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM SOUTHERN HONDURAS...ACROSS EL SALVADOR...INTO SOUTHERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH CUBA NEAR 21N78W...TO 20N82W...TO THE COMMON BORDER AREA OF GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.04 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST WIND FLOW...AND 800 MB TO 600 MB NORTHEAST WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA... FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO/LA ROMANA/PUNTA CANA... FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS... SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TOWARD CUBA FOR PART OF THE TIME...AND FROM COLOMBIA TO HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME. EXPECT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE FROM 160 NM TO 260 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN/DISSIPATE. EXPECT WEST WIND FLOW WHILE THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE ANTICYCLONIC MOVES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO OF DAY ONE. THE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER/INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AT THE END OF DAY ONE... BRINGING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW TO THE AREA. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO...WITH A RIDGE. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N46W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 08N TO 32N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO 22N23W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE BERMUDA-TO-23N75W COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N44W TO 31N48W 29N52W 24N60W... TOWARD HISPANIOLA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT