000 AXNT20 KNHC 260551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N96W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS OF...THREAT OF NORTHEAST NEAR GALE IN CAP BLANC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 06N11W TO 04N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N18W TO 02N27W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 34W...TO 02S44W NEAR THE COAST OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 05N SOUTHWARD FROM 20W EASTWARD...AND FROM 04N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 44W AND 48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WIND FLOW REGIME FOLLOWS THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA COLD FRONT. A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N96W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FAR WEST OF TEXAS...ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...THROUGH THE UPPER TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL AREAS...ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...INTO SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... MVFR CONDITIONS...KVQT...KGHB...AND KVOA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... VFR/NO CEILINGS. ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO 26N76W...BECOMING MORE AND MORE ILL-DEFINED MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 28N70W...THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO 20N81W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 17N83W...INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN HONDURAS... AND CURVING INTO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES ACROSS BERMUDA...TO 28N70W...TO CENTRAL CUBA...TO 20N83W...TO THE COMMON BORDER AREA OF GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.02 IN BERMUDA. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 23N81W IN CUBA...TO 19N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO WESTERN HONDURAS...TO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO 24N80W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...TO 20N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE COMMON BORDER AREA OF GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.04 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST WIND FLOW...AND 800 MB TO 600 MB NORTHEAST WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 26/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... BARAHONA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 26/0000 UTC. SANTO DOMINGO/ LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...MVFR AT 1600 FEET. SANTIAGO/PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TOWARD CUBA FOR PART OF THE TIME...AND FROM COLOMBIA TO HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME. EXPECT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE FROM 160 NM TO 260 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN/DISSIPATE. EXPECT WEST WIND FLOW WHILE THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE ANTICYCLONIC MOVES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO OF DAY ONE. THE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER/INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AT THE END OF DAY ONE... BRINGING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW TO THE AREA. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO...WITH A RIDGE. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N46W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 06N TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 21N TO 28N BETWEEN 40W AND 53W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO 30N23W AND 24N24W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 32N67W-TO-24N75W COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT