000 AXNT20 KNHC 252346 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 05N09W TO 02N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 00N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-05S BETWEEN 38W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N94W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF. FURTHER E...15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS PERSIST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE NW GULF HIGH TO DISSIPATE WHILE A 1033 MB HIGH MOVES TO E TEXAS. 10-15 KT N TO NE WINDS WILL THEN BE OVER THE GULF WITH CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER N OF 20N. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM NW OF FRONT TO INCLUDE OVER W HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE. 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA...AND COSTA RICA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO E HONDURAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE ISLAND WITH TRADEWIND FLOW WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM W DUE TO THE FRONT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NW OF FRONT TO INCLUDE THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N50W TO 25N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH. A 1038 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 42N38W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N43W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING SHOWERS. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N65W TO E CUBA WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA