000
AXNT20 KNHC 251758
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W AFRICA COAST AND OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 05N09W TO 03N18W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 02S28W TO 02S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS E OF 23W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 03N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   
 
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N96W WHICH ANCHORS A SURFACE
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN TODAY.
LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE HIGH CENTER.
MODERATE N TO NE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN GULF W
OF 90W. MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS COVER THE EASTERN GULF E
OF 90W. LIGHT SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION
ARE OVER THE SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 93W. OTHERWISE...NO
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING OVER THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS A REINFORCING PUSH OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S FROM THE US PLAINS. FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
OVER THE NE GULF AS THIS SECONDARY BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   
 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO 19N84W TO
15N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT.
LIGHT WINDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS COVERED BY MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST
BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SE AND WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
NW OF THE FRONT. 
 
HISPANIOLA...                              

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MAINLY OVER THE WINDWARD LOCATIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...     

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT S OF
28N. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE NW OF THE
FRONT N OF THE BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST...A PAIR OF SURFACE
TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC HAVE AXIS THAT EXTEND FROM 28N55W
TO 23N54W AND FROM 31N49W TO 26N49W. THE WESTERNMOST TROUGH IS
VOID OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES EAST OF THIS AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
LATTO