000 AXNT20 KNHC 250605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS OF...PERSISTENCE OF NORTHEAST NEAR GALE IN AGADIR AND CANARIAS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 07N11W TO 04N14W 03N20W AND 02N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 02N22W TO 02N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 24W...TO 02S28W 02N34W AND 03S39W AT THE COAST OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 01N TO 02N BETWEEN 05W AND 09W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 05N SOUTHWARD FROM 30W EASTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 51W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHOSE OVERALL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE U.S.A. FROM 100W EASTWARD. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE CURRENT EASTERN U.S.A.-TO-FLORIDA-TO-GULF OF MEXICO-TO-THE YUCATAN CHANNEL-TO-BELIZE-TO-NORTHERN GUATEMALA COLD FRONT. A SQUALL LINE IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 120 NM TO 180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM...FROM 25N TO 30N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N80W AT THE COAST OF FLORIDA...TO 22N84W IN NORTHWESTERN CUBA...TO 16N89W NEAR THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 27N76W 27N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM 22N SOUTHWARD FROM 87W WESTWARD IN MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... FROM TEXAS TO ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CURRENT EASTERN U.S.A. TO FLORIDA COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA NEAR 26N82W...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO NORTHERN BELIZE...TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH TO 22N84W IN NORTHWESTERN CUBA...TO 16N89W NEAR THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND 800 MB TO 600 MB SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 25/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... BARAHONA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 25/0000 UTC...SANTO DOMINGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA... FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 7000 FEET. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE EXTEND FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. EXPECT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ABOUT 125 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THAT IS ALONG 70W...PUSHING WESTWARD FOR A BIT OF TIME AND THEN RETURNING EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 650 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA...TO HISPANIOLA. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FROM THE NORTHEAST. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF DAY TWO. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AFTER ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL BE BRING BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N50W 28N52W 24N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 46W AND 56W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N42W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 17N38W AND 09N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 46W. A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 27N61W...TO 25N67W TO 24N75W IN THE BAHAMAS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN AFRICA AND 31N50W 24N53W SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT