000
AXNT20 KNHC 242348
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N
FLORIDA AT 30N83W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 22N88W. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE N OF 27N W OF FRONT TO 91W WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. TONIGHT
ON 25/0600 UTC THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
WINDS WILL THEN BE BELOW GALE. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 05N09W TO
01N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 03S30W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 04W-08W...AND FROM 03N-03S
BETWEEN 14W-28W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   
 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA AT 30N83W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AT 22N88W. GALE WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO.
SEE ABOVE. ON 24/2100 UTC...A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLANTIC AT 30N78W TO SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO AT 25N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE SQUALL LINE. A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO
NEAR 28N102W. 20-30 KT NW WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF W OF FRONT.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE
GULF EXCEPT OVER THE NW GULF AND TEXAS WHERE FAIR SKIES ARE
NOTED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 12 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE OUT OF THE AREA WITH THE GALE ENDED.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A 1027 MB HIGH TO BE CENTERED OVER THE NW
GULF WITH 10 KT WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   
 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
DUE TO THE COLD FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS 10-25
KT TRADEWINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL CUBA...W
PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS WITH
CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.  

HISPANIOLA...                              

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                             

A SQUALL LINE IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION TO INCLUDE
THE N BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 31N50W TO 24N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF
THE TROUGH. A 1033 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE
AZORES AT 37N29W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N41W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
CENTER IS ENHANCING SHOWERS. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BE
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
30N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA WITH CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
FORMOSA